by : ABDÜLHAMİT BİLİCİa.bilici@todayszaman.com
The eight-day-long Gaza operation of Israel, which started with the missile attack that killed Ahmad al-Jabari, the leader of al-Qassam -- the military wing of Hamas -- has escalated the tension in the Middle East.
The number of people who died in the Gaza attacks has exceeded 160, including many civilians and some journalists, as well as the child of Jihad Mesheravi, photo editor of BBC Arabic in Gaza. More than 80 public and security institutions were targeted during the Israeli attacks in Gaza. After the start of the attacks, the citizens were advised to stay inside their homes, and schools and workplaces were shut down. Rockets were fired from Gaza in response to Israeli attacks; five were killed by these rockets in Tel Aviv.
The changing balance in the Middle East, the involvement of Obama and Islamic countries including Egypt in the matter and the ability of Hamas to do damage in Tel Aviv due to its new missiles have all prevented a great catastrophe like the one in 2008. The casualties in the recent Israeli military campaign have remained relatively limited compared to the level of destruction and number of casualties in the Operation Cast Lead in 2008, which lasted 33 days and in which 1,500 Palestinians were murdered and the complete infrastructure of Gaza was destroyed. There is now an American president who was elected despite Israeli attempts and who would pursue a more independent policy in White House. The Arab Spring process that started in Tunisia has also destroyed many regimes that were formerly friends of Israel in the Middle East. There is a huge tension with Iran. A different political balance may emerge in Syria at any minute; this is important because this neighbor of Israel has never posed any serious problem for Israel over the past four decades. Winds of change are blowing in Jordan.
Recent public surveys conducted in Israel -- which will have early elections on Jan. 22 -- show that the Netanyahu-Lieberman alliance will experience no problem winning the elections again. This means that Israel does not need to stage a military campaign to attract domestic political support.
So what is the meaning and goal of the Israeli attack in Gaza? There could be three consequences of this campaign regardless of the Israeli motivation. The process called Arab Spring owes its success to another revolution that took place in people’s minds to overthrew some of the autocratic regimes in the Arab world. That revolution was the move of the interest and focus of the people in the Arab world from the Israeli blockage to major issues including freedom, justice, food and employment. The people in Tahrir did not burn the American or Israeli flags. Israel’s attack in Gaza to draw attention to the Palestinian issue again could have been a wise move to undermine the process of change.
The second consequence is directly relevant to the first matter. Having to deal with the Palestinian issue at the beginning of their term could have become a trap for the new administrations, including the one in Egypt, which would take them away from reforms. And in case populism associated with rhetorical reaction in the Palestinian issue is preferred over focusing on intricate problems, a historical opportunity would have been missed and the major goals of the revolution would have been undermined.
The third consequence is all about Israel. By attacking Gaza, Netanyahu has made sure that the Palestinian issue, which had become relatively insignificant compared to the Syrian crisis and Arab Spring process, attracted attention at a time when the global and regional conjectures are not in its favor.
If, as suggested by some hawkish figures in Netanyahu’s cabinet and Gilad Sharon, son of former prime minister Ariel Sharon, Israel had completely destroyed Gaza, we should have been prepared for more horrible disasters in the Middle East. However, for now, accepting a truce that all parties referred to as a victory for themselves has dominated such frantic moves. But it should be noted that this is just a cease-fire and that everything could happen unless true peace is made in this region.
